Should You Transfer CAD Now? – October Update 2014

Want to know when to send Canadian Dollars to US Dollars, GBP or AUD?

One month ago I wrote my first post for those who want to send money out of Canada and into US Dollars, British Pounds and Aussie Dollars. In this post, we will see if I my recommendation worked out?

And more importantly, what should you do now?

Over the years I have saved thousands of dollars with a simple approach to charting. To demonstrate my simple yet effective method I showed how I saved $2500 or 10% in one transaction.

Part of the 10% I saved is very easy – just by choosing a money transfer company that was right for my needs was the start. But the majority of the gain came timing the market, which although not quite so easy  – I will answer for you now.

First, lets take a look at my results from last month.

CAD/AUD CAD/USD CAD/GBP Results

If you look at the results you could say I was right 2 out of 3 times, which is a result I am happy with because the main goal here is to beat a random outcome of 50% but often worse. However I am especially happy with the result when you consider the results, because charting is a way to limit downside as well as increase the amount that arrives.

For example, if you moved $20,000 to all three destinations one month after my recommendations you would have saved $980 or 4.9% in total!

Results Math:

CAD to USD

(0.905 – 0.922) x 20,000 = $-340

Note: I used 90.5c, because I said to pull the trigger below 91c and in practice this should always be done when you are confident the trend has been broken. As it turned out the trend was broken and the currency pair continued even lower.

CAD to GBP

(0.556 – 0551) x 20,000 = $100

CAD to AUD

(1.025 – 0.964) x 20,000 = $1220

Total Gain = -340+100+1220 = $980 or 4.9%

Note: Charting and timing is not an exact science, we are simply trying to make some money by waiting if the tend is clearly up but also limit loss by sending now. My method here of adding up all the different currencies is not exactly what would happen in practice either but its as close as I can show that this method works. 4.9% is a HUGE number in one month.

Going forward however I plan to try to be a lot more scientific about my results.

The question is after all should you send money now? I figure 1 week is better time frame than 1 month, which is starting to get into what most would consider long term.

In addition to the week timeline, if I say WAIT – I will be providing a trigger point. For example, in this post I give specific instructions what to do.

First a Disclaimer: This website is intended to provide general information and opinions. The information contained in this post, page and website does not constitute and is not intended to be financial advice. You should make your own decisions and potentially in conjunction with a registered financial professional.

Should you SEND NOW or WAIT for the following currencies:

  1. CAD to US dollars
    • My recommendation: SEND NOW (short term)
  2. CAD to British pounds
    • My recommendation: WAIT (see notes for when to Send Now)
  3. CAD to Aussie dollars
    • My recommendation: SEND NOW (short term)

3 Month Chart CAD to USD

Recommendation: SEND NOW

Note on CAD to USD: Pretty clear chart that shows downward trend that should be respected as it may continue for many months.

 

October 2014 CAD/USD


3 Month Chart CAD to GBP

Recommendation: WAIT

However if a significant break below bottom most recent trend line occurs then this changes to SEND NOW. A significant break in this case would be 1/2 pence or 0.005.

Note: See-saw action leaves no confidence, but most recent uptrend shows that waiting may be the most beneficial.

October 2014 CAD/GBP


3 Month Chart CAD to AUD

Recommendation: SEND NOW

Note: Latest trend shows that it would be prudent to transfer CAD to AUD even if longer term the most recent strengthening continues. There is a good chance I will be wrong on this one because the most recent sideways action has only been relatively

October 2014 CAD/AUD

 

Summary

Timing of money transfers is not an exact science but it does work and I have saved many thousands of dollars over the years. My most recent result shows how I saved 4.9% in one month. It will be extremely interesting to see what happens next month with the most recent volatile action leaving no doubt that it is a good idea to remove emotions and just follow the charts.

You can get the latest analysis and charts for CAD sent to your inbox as soon as they are published each month.

Thanks for reading!

 

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