Should You Transfer CAD Now? – September Update 2014

Want to move Canadian Dollars to US Dollars, GBP or AUD?

Transumo Man in Canada

I know emotions and opinions can all conspire against you to make a wise decision.

However if you want to transfer Canadian dollars overseas, timing can make a significant difference to the amount you end up actually receiving.

Transumo’s motto is, “Money Transfers Made Simple”. We want to remove the emotions and indecision and replace those feelings in the form of confidence.

To demonstrate my simple yet effective method I showed how I saved $2500 or 10% in one transaction. It was fun to go back over old transactions and actually see my methods in action.

But it took me years to get good at it.

However, the most important step is where using some very simple charts to work out when it was a good time to send money.

But the charts change!

So, I have decided to show you what the charts are telling me right now if I wanted to move money to USA, UK or Australia.

To make it simple, I will say WAIT (if you can) or SEND NOW for each currency.

First a Disclaimer: This website is intended to provide general information and opinions. The information contained in this post, page and website does not constitute and is not intended to be financial advice. You should make your own decisions and potentially in conjunction with a registered financial professional. 

I hope this makes my position clear – This is just my opinion based on what I see in the charts and I have saved many many thousands of dollars following them with my own money.

Basically, this is what I would do and in some cases am doing. I hope it helps in making your own decision.

Scroll below for;

  1. Canadian dollars to US dollars (WAIT)
  2. Canadian dollars to British pounds (SEND NOW)
  3. Canadian dollars to Aussie dollars (WAIT)

CAD to USD

CADtoUSD 2yr chart August 2014The two year chart is very interesting. Long term the CAD has been losing ground and short term too with a bit of crazy stuff in between.

Lets look at the the three month chart for some more clarity.

CAD to USD 2 month chart August 2014So should you send CAD to USD – Now or Wait?

Based on this 3 month chart I would say send now, but this is not the whole picture.

But of course, the current trend could reverse.

At some point it most certainly will – maybe now, maybe later.

Now finally, lets look at the most recent chart – the five day chart to make sure we haven’t broken through the upper trend line on the three month chart.

CAD/USD 5 day chart 28 August 2014Well Holy Cow! – It has broken through 91.5c trend line of the three month chart and headed out of the trough formed over the last month.

Therefore this to me means clearly:

WAIT (if you can)

From here, when I would actually send my money depends on when I need the money in USD. If it is in the next few days, any move below the bottom trend line would mean I would be sending the money.

If I have a longer term view (perhaps weeks or months), if there was a move at or below 91c I would pull the trigger, because that would tell me that it could easily continue its long term trend lower.

CAD to GBP

CAD to GBP 2 year August 2014

So should you send CAD to USD – Now or Wait?

This is a super interesting chart! Talk about a solid and well defined trend.

The most recent trend is so well defined, that I think this should be our focus. The three month chart will help tell the story.

CAD to GBP 3 month chart August 2014

OK this is super helpful. According to the 3 month chart we have not yet broken through the most recent long term trend which is £0.56 but we are at the top of our trend line.

This should mean that I would send the money now, but at some point the trend will be broken and right now there seems to be a really good attempt to do so.

Lets check the 5 day chart then!

CAD to USD 5 day chart August 2014

Still within the trend longer term trend line on the 3 month chart and at the top end of this trend line.

Therefore:

SEND NOW

Yep, no doubt it will break through the upper trend line or lower trend line at some point, but for now it hasn’t and that makes me want to send at least some of my money now. The green line arrow provides just a little confidence too that the CAD is not going significantly higher against the British pound anytime really soon. See the summary for more information about why I would only be sending part of my money now.

CAD to AUD

CAD to AUD two year chart August 2014

So should you send CAD to AUD – Now or Wait?

The two year chart shows that you are getting less AUD now and possibly in the future too, but because this trend line is so wide varying 8c – I believe it is important to look at more recent time frames and the trend there.

CAD to AUD 3 month chart August 2014Based on both the three month chart and the two year chart the trend lines show that you will likely continue to get less AUD for your CAD.

Based on this, you should send your money from Canada to Australia now unless the five day chart tells us we might be breaking through the 98.5 upper trend line for the 2 year and 3 month charts.

It is important to also note that we are in trending downward to the top part of the 2 year channel. This means that even though the overall trend is down you could loose an additional 7c really easily.

Lets check the 5 day chart.

CAD to AUD 5 day chart 28 August 2014

OK WOW!

At 98.5c the three month trend has been broken very recently.

Now it might be just a short term thing but the charts tell me:

WAIT (if you can)

Summary

The Canadian dollar according to the charts is in a super interesting balance right now and should be watched carefully if you are planning to transfer money from Canada to pretty much any currency but especially the US dollar and Aussie Dollar.

When you are talking about sending money between countries for personal or even business needs (not trading), five day charts should only be used really just to check the overall longer term trend lines have not been broken.

In two cases – the USD and AUD, the five day chart showed the Canadian dollar might be just about to get stronger – therefore if it was my money I would wait.

The British pound is the only exception. If I were moving money from Canada to the UK, I would move at least some of my money now.

However, given that the Canadian dollar does appear to be breaking through long established trend lines against the other two currencies I would be moving a smaller amount than my usual transactions.

 

 

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