Should You Transfer USD Now? – October Update 2014

Want to move US Dollars from the States to CAD, GBP or AUD?

Transferring money overseas can be challenging – news, market commentators, forex analysts and changing economies can be sources of confusion for someone who simply wants to know if they should transfer US Dollars to the UK, Canada or Australia.

Transumo Man with US FlagI have shown how I saved $2500 or 10% in one transaction  by using simple chart analysis.

But I understand even simple chart analysis can be a challenge to get right so I will show weather you if you should WAIT or SEND your US dollar NOW for the CAD, GBP and AUD.

I will also provide some guidelines if I indicate WAIT as to what you do in the coming weeks.

Finally I will show on a monthly basis if my analysis and the charts have been correct and you can get the latest monthly analysis and charts sent to your inbox as soon as they are published.

First a Disclaimer: This website is intended to provide general information and opinions. The information contained in this post, page and website does not constitute and is not intended to be financial advice. You should make your own decisions and potentially in conjunction with a registered financial professional.

Scroll down to see if you should SEND NOW or WAIT for the following currencies:

  1. US dollars to Canadian dollars
    • My recommendation: SEND NOW (short term) – Long Term WAIT
  2. US dollars to British pounds
    • My recommendation: WAIT (see notes for when to exit)
  3. US dollars to Aussie dollars
    • My recommendation: WAIT (see notes for when to exit)

 Should You Send USD to CAD Now?

USD to CAD 2yr Chart 1 October 2014Based on the two year chart the US dollar is strengthening against the Canadian and is pretty clearly in a long term uptrend.

The question is, should we sit tight or send our money now – I have found the three month chart is usually the best indicator when shown within the context of longer and shorter term trends.

USD to CAD 3 month chart 1 October 2014

Based on the 3 month chart, the trend is pretty clear. Interestingly the trend is at the top end of the channel right now so it looks as if you want to move your money now now will be a good opportunity to do it.

Longer term, clearly it might be best to wait. That said, if the USD to CAD was to fall significantly below the lower trend line (currently at $1.10) I would have no hesitation to move my money.

Lets take a quick look at the five day chart.

USD to CAD - 5 Day - 1 Oct 2014

The 5 day chart shows a continuation along the top end of the current trend with a slight dip recently. This tracking of the upper limit of the trend line is a clear signal to me that the risk is to the downside.

So should you send your USD to CAD now? – SEND NOW

You probably will save a cent or two in the short term.

Longer term however – if you have weeks or even months on your side, it looks highly likely that the US dollar will continue to strengthen. That said, all bets are off if the currency falls significantly below the three month trend line. A cent below the trend line would for me be enough to hit the “transfer money now” button.

 Should You Send USD to GBP Now?

USD to GBP - 2yr Chart - 1 October 2014

No shortage of excitement in this chart! The short sharp most recent trend is a strong turn around but the three month chart will be super important especially in light of the most recent little spike we can see in September which was caused by the Scots wanting, “Freeeeedoom!”

But since then the trend looks to have resumed – the three month chart will tell us if this is the case.

USD to GBP - 3 Month Chart - 1 October 2014

Well the Scots are staying, but that has not helped the GBP. Looks like the US dollar has continued along it very well defined upward trajectory.

The next chart, the 5 day, should always be taken with a grain of salt – just really checking nothing has radically changed.

USD to GBP 5 Day Chart - 1 October 2014

 

The 5 day chart just confirms the current trend. Right now, the trend is confined to a narrow band of upper and lower limits. So…

Should you send your USD to GBP now? – WAIT

However if the lower trend line is breached by more than 1/2 pence I would move my money immediately, or at least part of it. For now though, it seems like a good idea to hold on to this nicely entrenched uptrend and in the short term there is not much to be gained.

 Should You Send USD to AUD Now?

 

USD to AUD - 2 year chart - 1 OctoberThe two year chart shows some pretty amazing volatility, with the most recent trend sharp, short and sweet if your funds are in US dollars and need a home in Australia.

At $1.15 we are at a two year high, but the real question is does the three month chart show we are still in the same trend? The answer to this will significantly help our decision.

USD to AUD 3 month chart 1 Oct 2014

The three month chart seems to pretty clear show that the USD is gaining ground on the AUD. We never know how long this trend will continue of course, but we do know that it is in our interest to hold on tight for the ride – ready to jump if the time is right.

Lets to a quick check of the five day chart just to be sure the wheels are still on.

USD to AUD - 5 Day Chart - 1 October

 

The five day chart just further validates current trend.

So to answer the question, should you send your USD to AUD now? – WAIT

But be ready for decisive action.

The lower trend line on the three month chart indicates the ride might be over. If it was my USD on the line I would be enjoying this ride for all it has to offer, but with a very itchy trigger finger. As the two year chart shows the USD/AUD make uneasy bedfellows and a move of 1 cent below the bottom trend line would be enough fun for me.

Final Word

The only reason I suggest sending your money from the US to Canada now is that the currency pair is at the top end of the trend line right now.

Longer term the USD is clearly strengthening against all major currencies. If you have a longer term time horizon the trend shows that it will most likely pay to wait.

However, this of course can change without notice which is why I suggest keeping an eye on the lower trend line in all cases and be confident in when capitalizing on the majority of the most recent gains.

You know what they say – “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered”

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