Weekly Currency Transfer Roundup – March 11, 2024

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This week marked a notable downturn for the US Dollar, shedding 1.26% against a collection of major currencies, deepening the slight 0.07% decrease seen the previous week. As Friday rolled around, the US Dollar Index (DXY) notched a 0.22% decline to close at 102.570.

This movement was shaped by various factors:

• Economic data released throughout the week hinted at potential challenges within the US economy. Specifically, on Tuesday, the Final Services PMI exceeded expectations slightly, yet the ISM Services PMI underperformed against forecasts. Similarly, Factory Orders showed a steeper decline than anticipated, underscoring concerns about economic momentum.
• Employment data presented a mixed view, with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report revealing weaker job growth than expected. This was compounded by a steady reading of unemployment claims, signaling a potential cooling in the labor market.
• The overarching sentiment was further dampened by indications from the Federal Reserve regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. Fed Chair Powell’s comments underscored a cautious stance towards reducing rates, aiming to ensure inflation targets are sustainably met.

Euro Rises Against Dollar Amid Economic Optimism and ECB Rate Cut Talks

This week, the USD to EUR exchange rate dropped by 0.91%, following a minor loss of 0.18% last week. The rate slightly rose by 0.08% on Friday, settling at 0.9139. Positive economic reports from Spain and increased investor confidence boosted the Euro, pressuring the USD to EUR rate.

Additionally, favorable German industrial and producer price indexes supported the Euro’s strength.

Highlighting a cautious approach to rate adjustments, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated:

“We have just begun discussing the dialling back of our restrictive stance,”

ECB President Christine Lagarde

For individuals sending money or exchanging currency, a stronger Euro or the falling USD against the Euro means getting more Euros for the same amount of Dollars or any other currency, beneficial for those converting EUR.

GBP Rises Amid Economic Updates and Budget Changes

This week, the USD to GBP exchange rate declined by 1.48%, closing at 0.77864 on Friday, after a slight improvement the previous week. Economic reports from the UK, including retail sales and service sector performance, showed mixed results, impacting the pound’s strength.

The UK’s Spring Budget announcement introduced significant tax changes aimed at economic growth, which slightly bolstered the GBP.

“The budget aims to stimulate growth amidst economic challenges,”

UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt

For anyone exchanging currency, the GBP’s rise means you’ll get more pounds when converting from other currencies but need more of your currency to get pounds. This change impacts how much you send or receive in cross-border transactions.

CAD Rises Amid Strong Job Data and Steady Interest Rates

The USD to CAD exchange rate experienced a slight dip of 0.47% after a three-week bullish trend, closing last week at 1.34927 with a minor loss of 0.26%. This change came amid several impactful economic reports and decisions.

Key Economic Insights:

• The Ivey PMI remained stable at 53.9.

• Employment Change in Canada exceeded expectations, with a gain of 40.7K jobs against the anticipated 21.1K.

• The unemployment rate stood firm at 5.8%.

• The Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate at 5%, indicating concerns over persistent inflation and adjusting the outlook for future rate cuts.

Despite anticipations for rate reductions, the Canadian dollar’s strength was partly checked by declining oil prices, which fell by 1.8% due to concerns over demand and an oversupply. Factors influencing these dynamics included extended OPEC+ production cuts, a cautious Chinese economic growth target, and reduced U.S. oil rig counts, signaling potential drops in future production.

So, whether sending money to Canada or converting CAD to another currency, the current trends suggest a favorable position for the Canadian dollar, making now an opportune time for CAD holders looking to exchange.

AUD Weekly Dynamics: Economic Data and China’s Trade Impact

This week saw the USD to AUD exchange rate fluctuate, ultimately decreasing by 1.47% after the previous week’s gain of 0.54%. The rate closed at 1.5089 on Friday, marking a slight decline.

Economic data influenced movements: Building Approvals showed a decline contrary to expectations, while Company Operating Profits exceeded forecasts. Australia’s Current Account and GDP data suggested a steady economic status, with trade balance figures slightly below predictions.

Notably, China’s robust trade surplus positively affected the AUD, reflecting strong economic resilience and boosting the Australian dollar’s appeal despite mixed signals from the US.

For individuals exchanging USD to AUD or sending money between these currencies, this week’s developments indicate a slightly more favorable conversion rate from USD to AUD, making it a potentially opportune time for transactions heading to Australia.

USD to INR Exchange Impact: India’s Growth Spurs Rupee

This week, the USD to INR rate dipped by -0.13%, following last week’s -0.02% decline. On Friday, the INR improved, closing at 82.7160 with a +0.06% gain. India’s unexpected economic surge in the October-December quarter, with an 8.4% growth exceeding the 6.6% forecast, has strengthened the INR.

This rise is partly due to significant subsidy cuts, especially in fertilizer subsidies, enhancing GDP numbers.

• India’s GDP growth exceeds expectations, impacting the INR positively.

• Substantial subsidy reductions contribute to the GDP’s surge.

• GVA’s moderate increase highlights a potential overestimation in GDP growth.

For those exchanging INR or remitting money, India’s economic performance suggests a favorable climate for sending funds to India, offering more value in the conversion to INR amidst the country’s growth momentum.

SGD Update: Economic Growth and Pop Impact

This week saw the USD to SGD exchange rate decrease by -0.95%, despite last week’s +0.07% gain, closing at 1.33128 on Friday. A surge in confidence for the Singapore dollar emerged from optimistic GDP forecasts and the economic boost from Taylor Swift’s concerts in Singapore.

• Singapore’s GDP forecast for 2024 was revised upwards, fostering positive market sentiment.

• Taylor Swift’s concerts contribute significantly to Singapore’s tourism revenue.

• The SGD strengthened amid increased economic activity and foreign tourist influx.

For individuals exchanging SGD or sending money, the current trends offer a more advantageous rate for converting to SGD, reflecting Singapore’s robust economic outlook and the vibrant tourism sector’s positive influence on the currency.

Key events to watch for

Keep these events on your calendar for the upcoming week as they may affect your currency.

• China’s New Loans: Expected to decrease from 4920B to 1510B, indicating potential shifts in lending and economic activity.

March 12th, Tuesday:

• UK’s Claimant Count Change: Anticipated at 20.3K, up from 14.1K, could signal changes in the job market.
• Average Earnings Index 3m/y in the UK: Projected at 5.7%, slightly down from 5.8%, impacting wage growth insights.
• US Core CPI and CPI for February: Core CPI is expected at 0.3% (previous 0.4%) and CPI at 0.4% (previous 0.3%), with year-over-year CPI stable at 3.1%, reflecting inflation trends.
• US 10-year Bond Auction: Yield outcomes could influence market interest rates.

March 13th, Wednesday:

• UK GDP m/m for February: Forecasted at 0.2%, a recovery from -0.1%, may hint at the economic direction.
• US 30-year Bond Auction: Watch for yield changes affecting long-term interest rates.

March 14th, Thursday:

• US Core PPI and Retail Sales for February: Core PPI expected at 0.2% (previous 0.5%), with Retail Sales anticipated to rise by 0.8% after a -0.8% dip, indicating consumer spending health.
• US Unemployment Claims: Predicted to slightly increase to 218K from 217K, offering labor market insights.

March 15th, Friday:

• US Empire State Manufacturing Index: Expected at -7.6, indicating manufacturing sector trends.
• Industrial Production m/m: Projected to remain flat, contrasting a previous -0.1% decrease.
• Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations for March: Sentiment is forecasted to slightly improve to 77.3, with inflation expectations at 3.0%.

Conclusion

This week, the US dollar experienced varied trends against other currencies, influenced by multiple factors. Disappointing US economic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s hints at possible future rate cuts led to a weakening dollar. In Europe, positive economic signs and the European Central Bank’s potential rate cuts put pressure on the dollar. The UK’s attempts to stimulate its economy through budget measures couldn’t stop the dollar’s decline against the British pound.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain interest rates, along with reduced expectations for future cuts, contributed to the dollar’s fall. Meanwhile, encouraging economic news from Australia and significant GDP growth in India pressured the dollar further. Lastly, an upbeat GDP forecast for Singapore, spurred by tourism gains from Taylor Swift’s concerts, highlighted the diverse influences on the dollar’s performance across global markets.

So, stay alert and enjoy the financial dance! Happy transferring!